Development Trends and Growth Projections

A Report to the Region, pg 8-10 – View the “Report to the Region”, PDF

In order to predict growth and development patterns relating to our region, CRT first identified the following indicators and trends utilizing the most up-to-date data available. Primary sources used included census data, information from government agencies and professional consultants. Learn More about projections for:

• Population and Household Growth
• Employment Growth
• Use of the Land
• Commute Patterns
• Traffic Congestion
• Infrastructure Costs
• Cities and Towns
• Air and Water

Population and Household Growth

We can expect the ten-county Cumberland Region population to increase by about a half million residents in the next 20 years—from 1.4 to 1.9 million people if current trends continue. In Davidson County alone the population is projected to increase by 62,000 persons. In the six counties surrounding Nashville-Davidson County total population is expected to increase by 300,000. The largest projected population increases are in several of the counties surrounding Nashville-Davidson County—notably Cheatham County, 64 percent; Williamson County, 58 percent; and Rutherford County, 54 percent.

As the population increases, the number of households is projected to increase more rapidly. However, households will become smaller from 2.66 to 2.58 people per household. This trend is attributed to the changing demographics of the region. While the resident population will age and household size will decline, much of the region’s growth will result from immigration from other parts of the United States and the world. The region’s Hispanic population, which grew by 140 percent in the last ten years, from 11,300 to 27,000, will continue to become a larger percentage of the Cumberland Region population representing 26 percent of the forecasted new growth.

Since much of the growth is from immigration, the birth rate will be much higher than it would be otherwise. People who move to a new area are usually in their 20s and 30s. They often bring children with them and continue to have children after they settle. The proportion of young people will remain stable—and schools will continue to be a large need. In addition, the number of persons over age 65 will increase dramatically. The only population that will fall in proportion to current percentages are key members of the labor force—those ages 20 to 49. Their percentage will fall from 40 percent to 34 percent of the population.

Employment Growth

The number of jobs in the Cumberland Region is expected to increase by 33 percent in the next 20 years, an increase of 323,540 from the current 973,580 employed persons. The majority of the increase will be in the service sector. Manufacturing will decline slightly as a percentage of the job market; other sectors will remain stable. Service jobs tend to develop close to households unlike industrial jobs that locate independently of households. Service sector jobs also tend to have lower wages and be more sensitive to land use and transportation factors, thus increasing the need for affordable housing throughout the region. Clearly, employment trends will have a large impact on the types of future development in the Cumberland Region.

Use of the Land

The most important and alarming trend in the Cumberland Region relates to land use. Most new development is occurring outside of existing cities and towns on previously undeveloped land at a very low rate of density. As a result consumption of open space and agricultural land is occurring at an alarming rate. Predictions show a continuation of the declining density trend from the current average of 1.4 persons per acre to 1.31 persons per acre over the next 20 years.

With an expected increase of 467,000 people, more than 356,000 acres of land, roughly the size of Davidson County, will be urbanized—mostly for low-density housing outside the urban areas.

Low Density “Sprawl” Can Result in:

• greater capital costs associated with building new infrastructure
• greater vehicle miles traveled and, consequently, higher levels of automobile emissions
• more adverse fiscal impacts when annual tax revenues from residential uses are inadequate to cover the annual costs of providing public services
• higher rates of conversion of prime agricultural lands and lands with fragile environments

The region’s urban areas are showing an increase in density zoning, however, which suggests that desired residential urban infill is beginning to occur. Inside today’s city limits we can expect to see about 71,000 acres of land developed, housing roughly 247,000 people. Inside urban growth boundaries, identified in Tennessee Public Chapter 1101 as future city limits, 247,000 people will use a total of 125,000 acres of new land for housing and jobs. About 94,000 people are expected to locate outside of urban areas on estate and acreage housing in rural areas— causing development that is described as rural residential. This type of development will convert about 160,000 acres of existing farm, forested or natural areas to housing. The problem with rural residential development is that while it takes the most land out of the farm, forest and natural inventory, it accommodates the smallest number of people. Rural residential development is almost six times less efficient than development within existing city limits.

Commute Patterns

The relationship between lower densities and more driving is well documented. As jobs and households move further apart, more distance must be covered to accommodate daily tasks. Most job growth will continue to be inside the cities and towns of the region and more than half of projected growth will be in areas outside Davidson County. Land use trends described above suggest that density will continue to decrease as development moves outside of urban areas. In 2000, Nashville’s daily vehicle-miles-traveled was already the highest in the United States for a metropolitan area its size, 37.5 miles per person per day. If trends continue this will increase to about 39 miles per person per day in 2020 which equates at the very least to more air pollution.

Traffic Congestion

Another disturbing trend is the increase in time lost due to traffic congestion. The amount of time lost per person more than doubled in the last ten years. In 1990, annual traffic delay was 18 hours per person. In 1999, it was 42 hours—that’s only six hours short of tripling the 1990 figure. At the same time, the cost of time lost in traffic increased threefold, from $140 million to $455 million.If congestion continues to increase at the same rate, by 2020 the hours lost would again more than double to 84 hours per person per year—that’s the equivalent of more than two work weeks spent sitting in traffic.

Infrastructure Costs

The most serious fiscal impacts come from the large amount of land to be converted to urban uses. For example, the amount of new local roads will increase by 40 percent over the present—an addition of 8,300 miles. This is necessary because of the large amount of new land to be developed. This expansive development translates to almost $10 billion necessary to pay for additional roads and accompanying infrastructure.

To Define “Sprawl”, researchers use a sprawl index based on four facotrs that can be measured and anaylzed:

• Residential Density
• Neighborhood mix of homes, jobs, and services
• Strength of Activity centers and downtowns
• Accessibility of the Street network

Cities and Towns

When cities grow together they almost always lose their distinct identities. Local uniqueness and identity are two traits highly valued by residents of the Cumberland Region. The current separation and uniqueness of the region’s communities are highly desired qualities in other parts of the country. In most metropolitan areas, these qualities were lost long ago. If development is to continue as trends suggest, individual cities and towns within the region are likely to grow together and lose their unique identities. Our quality of life within distinct communities will be significantly diminished as a result of this occurrence.

Air and Water

Meeting federal clean air standards is becoming increasingly difficult for the Cumberland Region. The increasing number of miles we are driving is a major factor in worsening air quality. Vehicle use is the single largest contributor to pollution in our area and the reason we can expect to fail the new, more stringent clean air standards about to be imposed by the federal government.

As more land is developed—and covered with buildings and paved surfaces—our water quality and related ecosystems are also threatened. The threat is twofold: first, runoff from paved surfaces carries pollutants from vehicles into our rivers and streams, and second, land covered by impervious surfaces can no longer help filter pollutants out of our water or hold water to control flooding. The Cumberland Region’s topography with its rocky substrate encourages flooding. Future development should take into consideration the region’s land characteristics and resulting environmental effects.

Summary

In summary, the development patterns depicted by the trends described above are considered textbook urban sprawl. Sprawl causes so many problems for the people of this country, including longer driving distances and time, poorer air quality, more expensive services, limited transportation and housing options, to name a few.

When we consider the values our region holds dear, the Cumberland Region will be adversely affected by this manner of growth. In some cases, this is a result of more people living in the region. It is also exacerbated by our current development practices. We know that with growth comes change. Parks may become more crowded, it may be harder to find parking, and ratepayers may have to spend more money to acquire the additional quantities of water needed. While we cannot control the population growth in general, residents of the Cumberland Region can help shape the future of development in the region by addressing ways in which growth occurs and whether it does or does not ultimately undermine the quality of life that we currently enjoy and value.