Regional Visioning and Scenario Planning

A Report to the Region

From 2001 to 2003 CRT engaged 500 plus residents of our region to define our future growth patterns and create information from which we can make more informed choices about our region’s future. Efforts of the Regional Visioning Project produced one of the first national models for successful regional scenario planning. This planning is leading to successful regional and local planning and implementation.

View the “Report to the Region”, PDF or Read More Below

The Regional Visioning Project Key Findings

Upon examining the facts of growth in the Cumberland Region and what impact uncontrolled growth could have on the lives of its citizens, The Regional Visioning Project concluded with these findings:

Residents of our region want to preserve our unique communities and beautiful landscapes
The Region’s quality of life is key to our economic vitality
We believe that our region can preserve our quality of life and accommodate the rapid growth that is sure to come to our region.
We don’t have much time to accomplish these changes. The region is growing faster than we predicted in 2000, with total population growth expected to exceed 2 Million in 2020.

20 Year Growth Trend Data

Using census data, information from government and professional agencies, and the input of knowledgeable citizens, the RVP research defined regional growth trends for the Cumberland Region in the following time periods.

In 2000, the CRT Region was:

Comprised of 3.4 Million acres
Home to 1.4 Million people
Ten counties that comprise the population and economic center for Middle Tennessee
Ten counties interdependent politically, economically and geographically
Developed at an average density of 2.7 persons per acre which is 60% of the national average.

In the 1990’s we saw:

Total population increase of 22%, or 250,000 residents
The region experience an employment increase of 38%
Over 167,500 acres or 5% total of all land re-developed from farms and natural areas to housing
Dispersal of population/Sprawl accelerate

From 2000 to 2020 we can expect:

Population increase from 1.4 Million to 2.0 Million residents
(source: TACIR/UT Population Forecast)
Job increase of 33%, an additional 325,540, to total 973,580 jobs
(source: Woods and Pool)
More than 356,000 acres to be developed, roughly the size of Davidson
County, mostly for low density housing (source: Fregonese and Associates)
$10 Billion needed for infrastructure (source: Fregonese and Associates)
Environmental impact to worsens (source: Fregonese and Associates)
Congestion/travel times to increase to highest in nation
(source: Texas Transportation Institute)

Base Case Scenario

Growth Related Challenges

Greater land consumption
Most newer housing is single family on large lots
Fewer housing choices, affordable units farther away from jobs, services, etc.
Reuse of the urban areas is minimal
Fewer transportation choices, due to increased reliance on cars
Higher energy and personal transportation costs per family

Alternate Case Scenario

Growth Related Opportunities

Preservation of unique cities, towns, and communities
Greater savings in land consumption and preservation of open space
Greater variety of housing choice and opportunity
Increased reuse of existing communities and infrastructure
Expanded transportation modes and better use of current infrastructure

A Comparison: Base Case to Alternate Case

Indicator	Base Case	Alternate Case
Land We Will Consume:	365,000 acres	91,000 acres
Infrastructure Costs:	$6,957,085,995	$3,406,798,045
Intersections per acre:	.034	.11
New Road Miles:	4,544 miles	2,225 miles
Acres of New Impervious Surfaces:	62,444 acres	35,033 acres
Vehicle Miles of Travel Increase:	39 miles	35.9 miles
Density Patterns- Region Wide:	1.13 persons/acre	5.8 persons/acre

Following the Regional Visioning and Scenario Planning, A Report to the Region was published in 2003 and laid out the results showing how the 10-county region was growing and what could potentially happen if we continue to grow with business as usual planning and development practices.