Defining and Projecting the Base Case Scenario

In Our Region, Report To The Region, Resource
1

A Report to the Region, pg 12 – View the “Report to the Region”, PDF

To establish a Base Case scenario, the first step was to gather approximately 150 regional leaders in several workshops in May 2001. Workshop participants used regional maps and CRT trend data to forecast where growth and development would most likely occur in the next 20 years. After review of the workshop maps and a compilation of growth estimates by planning professionals, the Base Case map exhibiting trend projections was completed. The resulting Base Case map is the foundation of the Base Case scenario in which growth trends, based on statistical data, are graphically displayed.

Projections of the trends in the Base Case scenario reveal both interesting and troubling patterns. The most prominent trend is that most growth is expected to occur along major transportation routes. Key transportation routes are often linked to the location of new development and are not by necessity good or bad locations for development. This trend is alarming because it suggests that the cities of the Cumberland Region may soon grow together to form one large metropolitan area.