Comparison of the Base and Alternate Case Scenarios

In Issue, Our Region, Report To The Region, Resource
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A Report to the Region, pg 15 – View the “Report to the Region”, PDF

After the May and October 2001 workshops were completed, the resulting maps were digitized and the map images you see in this report were created. Using computer- imaging software developed for CRT we are able to graphically represent the Base Case scenario and Alternative Case scenario. Base Case represents what would happen in the region over the next 20 years without any changes to current growth management practices. Alternative Case represents what can happen in the region over the next 20 years if different growth patterns and strategies in keeping with the CRT guiding tenets are realized.

Several striking differences between the Base Case scenario and Alternative Case scenario immediately appeared. A point-by-point analysis of each scenario based on the workshop results are described in the following graphics:

Base Case vs. Alternate Case

Base Case	Alternate Case
Unless things change, this is the way our region will develop over the next 20 years:	When asked to design growth patterns using the guiding principles, 83 percent of participants agreed on the following concepts:
Growth occurs along interstates, contributing to a "leapfrog" development effect.	Growth occurs closer to existing population centers.
Growth uses maximum amount of land.	Growth uses less land.
Growth results in less open space.	Growth uses as little open space as possible.
Growth involves mostly single family houses on large lots.	Growth involves greater variety of housing types.
Traffic increases because development is more spread out.	Traffic is reduced as housing, commercial and employment centers are interspersed
Cities grow together as development occurs along connected highways and interstates.	Cities maintain unique characteristics and individual qualities as growth occurs in existing population centers and downtowns.

A Comparison: Base Case to Alternate Case

Indicator	Base Case	Alternate Case
Land We Will Consume:	365,000 acres	91,000 acres
Infrastructure Costs:	$6,957,085,995	$3,406,798,045
Intersections per acre:	.034	.11
New Road Miles:	4,544 miles	2,225 miles
Acres of New Impervious Surfaces:	62,444 acres	35,033 acres
Vehicle Miles of Travel Increase:	39 miles	35.9 miles
Density Patterns- Region Wide:	1.13 persons/acre	5.8 persons/acre

Where Will Growth Occur? Base Case vs. Alternate Case

	Urban	Urban Growth Boundary*	Rural
Where Development will Occur
Base Case	30%	38%	32%
Alternate Case	76%	21%	3%
Where people will Live
Base Case	55%	28%	17%
Alternate Case	95%	4%	1%
Total Land Developed
Base Case	401,167 acres	223,259 acres	255,586 acres
Alternate Case	399,446 acres	117,894 acres	146,415 acres